Keywords
LULC
CA-Markov Chain Analysis
ESV
Sustainability
How to Cite
Abstract
Char Kukri Mukri, a coastal island in the southern part of Bangladesh, is highly vulnerable to natural calamities and individualistic haphazard land use practices, negatively impacting the overall ecosystem of this char. The study integrates these challenges with livelihoods and aims to develop solutions for sustaining ecosystems, land use, and livelihoods based on predicted land use. The study employs a mixed-methodological approach, combining primary data (questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions) and secondary data (satellite imagery from 2004 to 2024, government and non-governmental data, journals, etc.). Satellite data are pre-processed, classified, and metricized based on 2004 and 2024, enabling the creation and validation of LULC maps, as well as LULC prediction maps using the CA-Markov Chain Model. Overall, the completion of the study involves usage of ArcMap 10.5, QGIS 3.34.11, IDRISI Selva, Google Earth Pro, Excel, and SPSS software. This study reveals a sharp expansion of built-up area alongside a decline in agricultural, intertidal, barren, mangrove land, and water bodies. CA-Markov analysis predicts continuous urban growth at the expense of natural barrens, biodiversity, and ecosystems. While ecosystem service value (ESV) increased slightly between 2004 and 2024 as the char became comparatively extensive and mature, while it is predicted to decline by 2034 due to intensified land conversion, population pressure, sea level rise and climate change. As over a million coastal char dwellers are periodically affected by salinity, erosion, and cyclones that force them to migrate multiple times in a single decade, different solutions, including mangrove restoration, effective farming, livelihood diversification, and LULC planning, will help ensure overall sustainability in this alarming state.
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